The "Waiting Party" wins again!On January 12, Tesla China officially announced price cuts forModel 3 andModel Y(Configuration| Inquiry).Among them, the price of the refreshed version of Model 3 has dropped by 15,500 yuan, and the price of the refreshed version of Model 3 long-range has dropped by 11,500 yuan; the price of the Tesla Model Y rear-wheel drive version has dropped by 7,500 yuan, and the price of the Tesla Model Y long-range version has dropped by 6,500 yuan.
In fact, since New Year's Day this year, Tesla has given preferential policies and announced the launch of insurance subsidies and low-interest financial policies for Model 3 rear-wheel drive vehicles. The total discount range reached 22,000. This time, it directly reduced the price, trying to directly Sales generate excitement.
As the leader in the electric vehicle industry, Tesla’s every move attracts much attention.At the beginning of 2023, Tesla launched a price reduction plan, which subsequently triggered other automakers to follow, and the Chinese auto market ushered in a comprehensive price reduction wave.With price cuts at the beginning of 2024, will Tesla still affect the entire automotive industry like a catfish?
2023 can be said to be a year of accelerated reshuffle in the automobile market: the momentum of new energy vehicles will not change, and the replacement of fuel vehicles will be accelerated; in the vigorous new energy vehicle market, some people will abandon it, some will adjust, and some will accelerate their entry.Bleeding while singing triumphant songs, this magical situation will surely continue in 2024.Tesla, who was once motionless, has gradually changed from a bystander to an participant.
2023 under pressure
In 2023, Tesla will be under pressure to grow.This year, Tesla completed its own plan of 1.8 million vehicles.Its global production and delivery report shows that throughout 2023, Tesla produced a total of approximately 1.85 million electric vehicles globally and delivered approximately 1.81 million vehicles, representing year-on-year increases of approximately 35% and 38% respectively, and continued to retain the title of global pure electric vehicle leader. Ranked first in the car delivery list.
But overall, the situation faced by Tesla is not optimistic. In 2023, Tesla's sales growth will further fall to 37.7% from 87.6% in 2021 and 40.4% in 2022.In the first two weeks of trading in 2024, Tesla's market value has evaporated by more than US$94 billion, mainly due to external concerns about Tesla's stagnant growth.
The slowdown in demand growth has become the "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the heads of all automobile manufacturers.Taking the Chinese market as an example, according to statistics released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, domestic sales of automobiles in 2023 will be 25.184 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%, but it is not a historical high.All manufacturers have to face the fact that the Chinese automobile market has entered an era of low-speed growth.
Last year, as Tesla fired its first shot, the automobile industry launched a year-round price war, spreading from new energy sources to fuel vehicles, just to compete for that little bit of "low-speed growth."And as long as there is a price war, there is no complete winner.
Data shows that Tesla's gross profit margin will continue to decline in 2023, reaching 19.3%, 18.2%, and 17.9% in the first three quarters respectively.According to media reports, after this price reduction, its bicycle profit was less than RMB 20,000.
"We are passively lowering prices. After the price drops, everyone loses money and we make a small profit. If the monthly sales volume is lower than a certain scale, it will cause losses, so we must scale up. To ensure scale, we must have sales volume." 2023 At the 2018 Guangzhou Auto Show, Li Yunfei, general manager of BYD's brand and public relations department, also expressed his frustration with the price war.
From the perspective of the popularity of new energy vehicles, it is still in its infancy. However, with the slowdown in demand growth, the development of the new energy vehicle industry has been pressed on the accelerator button. It has suddenly gone from the early stage of "a hundred schools of thought contending" and everyone showing off their talents to a bloody one. , elimination is the main tone in the middle and late stages.
At the beginning of 2024, Tesla had no choice but to throw out the "killer trump card" of price reduction again, trying to replicate last year's growth miracle.
Last year, amid protests by old car owners holding banners, Tesla's price cuts quickly bore fruit. Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that from January to March 2023, Tesla's cumulative retail sales in China were 137,000 units. A year-on-year increase of 26.9%.Among the top 15 car companies in terms of retail sales, only Tesla and BYD have resisted the market decline and achieved an increase in sales.
The price reduction itself is a double-edged sword. It can make people who want to buy quickly buy, or it can make people who want to buy undecided and wait and see.After Tesla officially announced the price cut, the market had mixed reactions. Some people are looking forward to another price cut, "Will there be price cuts Y years ago?"; some people plan to enter the market at a low price, "Now is the right time to buy."At the same time, there are many people who picked up their cars in December and felt "stabbed in the back."
However, judging from the current market performance, price reduction is still the only way to stimulate sales.Data shows that from January 1 to 8, 2024, Tesla sales were 3,200 vehicles, and from January 8 to 14, sales were 7,400 vehicles, directly doubling and returning to the top three new energy brands again.However, it still ranks behind BYD (40,300) and Wuling (8,000).
Fairly successful, but still needs work.Under the squeeze of leading brands such as Tesla, the car market, especially the new energy vehicle market, will continue to bleed and be eliminated in 2024 and even longer.
Catfish and Sardines
2023 will be a volatile year for the automobile market.
This year, Tesla’s “number one” status was challenged; this year, traditional car companies represented by BYD showed their advantages and flexed their muscles in the new energy vehicle market; this year, There is a big reshuffle of new forces, Weimar goes bankrupt, Xpeng restarts, Wenjie, Leappo and others are rising strongly, and the two latecomers Huawei and Xiaomi are gaining momentum.
In 2023, Tesla, which once dominated the electric vehicle market, will have its lead reduced.In 2022, Tesla will sell 1.31 million pure electric vehicles, and BYD will sell 910,000 pure electric vehicles, a difference of 400,000 vehicles; in 2023, Tesla will sell 1.81 million pure electric passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 72.8%, and BYD will sell 1.57 million pure electric passenger vehicles, a difference of 24 Thousands of vehicles.
And BYD's offensive is still increasing.In the third quarter of 2023, Tesla leads BYD by 4,000 units in electric vehicle sales.By the fourth quarter of 2023, Tesla's sales were 485,000 vehicles, while BYD's was 526,000 vehicles, achieving a lead over Tesla.
Although the price bands between the two parties only slightly overlap, the impact on the brand's potential cannot be ignored. Tesla's "electric vehicle first" impression is beginning to be broken.When competing in the affordable market withDolphin , looking forward to the launch of U8 in the first half of 2023 will not only make consumers really look forward to its million-dollar price, but also become a key step in the transformation of its brand image.
This year, the helplessness of catfish coincides with the evolution of sardines.When Tesla has no choice but to cut prices, new forces such as Lideal and Xpeng are taking up supply chain management courses, and traditional car companies such as BYD are either developing their own products or cooperating with Huawei to improve their intelligence.
Tesla, which is waving the banner of price reduction, is supported by its own research and development technology, marketing model and supply chain capabilities, and has a cost advantage.When the price was reduced before, Tao Lin, Tesla’s vice president of external affairs, once explained on Weibo: “Behind Tesla’s price adjustment, it covers countless engineering innovations, which is essentially a unique and excellent law of cost control...Adhere to the principle of Cost pricing.”
Indeed, Tesla’s gross profit margin has always been at the leading level in the industry.The 2022 financial report shows that Tesla's gross profit margin in 2022 is 25.6%, while the gross profit margins of Ideal, Xpeng, Weilai, and Leapao are 19.4%, 11.5%, 10.4%, and -15.4% respectively.
In 2023, new forces that have fallen behind will secretly fight the supply chain and gradually make up for the cost optimization course.The financial report shows that Li Auto achieved revenue of 34.68 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 271.2%; net profit was 2.81 billion yuan. This is the fourth consecutive quarter that Li Auto has achieved profitability.
At a financial performance meeting, Xpeng Motors executives revealed that "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" is the current main task.He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xpeng Motors, said he is confident to achieve the goal of reducing overall costs by 25% by the end of 2024, and is expected to achieve breakeven by 2025.
Tesla’s opponents are not just new forces, but all automobile manufacturers.Unlike new forces that have no experience in supply chain management and have to invest heavily in technology research and development and production, BYD still suffers from price wars, but its gross profit margin performance is still excellent, even better than Tesla.Driven by the scale effect, "sardines" have become or may become the new "catfish".
Of course, in the face of fierce market competition, "catfish" also need to transform into "sardines".While other brands are piling up configurations, luxury, and other things that can be better perceived by consumers, and launching various functions to meet or create needs, Tesla is still following Musk's original "technology brand" positioning and focusing on the overall Use experience.
But technology can only become more popular if it is better perceived by people. This is true for mobile phones and will also be true for the automobile market.Under the impact of domestic manufacturers, although Apple is still number one, its position is no longer so stable, and the shadow of domestic mobile phone manufacturers can be seen more and more.Why wouldn't cars be like this?
new pattern
In 2023, along with the price war throughout the year, a new competitive landscape is taking shape.
From its start under the influence of policies in 2010, to vigorous development with the help of capital in 2015, and then to rapid growth with the help of the market, in recent years, China's new energy vehicle market has formed an interweaving pattern of old and new forces after three stages of development. The situation of "a hundred schools of thought contending": "Wei Xiaoli" and others are standing firm, traditional car companies and entrepreneurs are making efforts, and Huawei, Xiaomi, etc. are accelerating their entry.
In 2023, the situation in the past few years will gradually be broken.Traditional car companies represented by GAC have gained momentum, and new forces have reshuffled the old and new.
This year, GAC Aian, which was born out of a traditional car company, has achieved good results.Relying on GAC’s resource advantages, GAC Aion’s cumulative sales this year exceeded 480,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 77%. It has become the fastest pure electric brand and new energy brand in the world to exceed one million vehicles, and is also the fastest in the world to exceed one million vehicles. A car brand with millions of units."
At the beginning of 2024, according to media reports, GAC Group plans to list GAC Eon in Hong Kong. CICC and Huatai Securities will be responsible for related matters and plan to raise US$1 billion.For GAC Aian, this is an independent challenge and proof of achievements.
This year, Huawei and Xiaomi, which have crossed over into the automotive industry, are also making waves.With the blessing of Huawei, although Wenjie will deliver less than 100,000 vehicles (94,400 vehicles) in total in 2023, it has received a high level of discussion and has set a new target of 600,000 vehicles in 2024.Xiaomi, which has been building cars in recent years, also made big news at the end of 2023.
Overall, after the wave of price cuts in 2023, competition in the automobile market will become more intense.
According to data released by the Passenger Car Association, China's cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2023 will be 7.74 million, a year-on-year increase of 36.3%, with a penetration rate of 35.7%, an increase of 7.7 percentage points compared to 2022.It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 43% in 2024 and may exceed 50% in 2025.
This shows that the market is running out of time for fuel vehicles, and it also shows that the window period for newcomers to new energy sources is getting shorter and shorter.Automobiles are an industry with extremely prominent scale effects. The larger the scale, the better the cost optimization, and the more efforts can be made on price and product strength, thereby further expanding the scale.At the same time, this also means that in the later stages, the cost of breaking the situation becomes higher and the opportunity becomes smaller.
On one side, there is a low-speed growth market, and on the other side, new entrants are constantly entering the market. This is destined to be a fierce competition, and it is also a competition that will test the technological advancement, maturity capabilities, and cost control capabilities, especially as the economy grows. Slowing down, residents’ willingness to consume weakens, and affordable consumption becomes more dominant.
Recently, there is a popular joke on the Internet, "If you don't work hard, you will have to buy BBA in the future." This is a joke that domestic brands have launched high-end models priced between 500,000 and 1 million.In fact, on the whole, under the influence of the wave of price cuts and scale effects, the new energy vehicle market is transitioning from a "dumbbell shape" to a "spindle shape", that is, from the high and low ends to the mid-range price zone.
This is inevitable for new energy vehicles to gradually replace fuel vehicles. The mainstream price range of the fuel vehicle market is 100,000-200,000. Competition in this price range is the most intense and it also tests the technical capabilities, cost control capabilities, and product capabilities of car companies.
Based on this prediction, companies that can still stand firm in the fierce competition in the future can be divided into two types: those with outstanding comprehensive capabilities, deep accumulation of technology, products, and manufacturing, and competitive prices, such as BYD and GAC Aian. ; Or it has unique market positioning and product positioning, and achieves brand accumulation in a certain segment, such as the ideal of positioning as a "daddy car" from the beginning.
While bleeding, triumphant songs are played, and only the wheels of new energy vehicles roll forward firmly.
